Nurse practitioner workforce growth to far outpace physicians, physician assistants: Study
The nurse practitioner workforce is projected to grow 11% annually through 2030, far outpacing projected growth for physician assistants and physicians, according to workforce estimates published in Health Affairs.
Researchers from Columbia University, Brandeis University, George Washington University and New York University forecast physician supply will continue growing about 1% annually through 2030, while physician assistant supply is projected to grow 5.6% annually. By 2030, the combined number of nurse practitioners and physician assistants is expected to approach the size of the physician workforce, with an estimated 912,265 clinicians, compared with 1,068,016 physicians. The estimates are based on U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data through 2023.
The authors said the projections are higher than previous federal estimates from the Health Resources and Services Administration because they incorporate more recent workforce trends, particularly the rapid expansion of younger nurse practitioners entering the profession.
Researchers said the differing growth rates are largely driven by accelerated growth among nurse practitioners younger than 40 years old compared with slower growth among physician assistants in the same age group.
“As the U.S. population ages and demand for care grows, NPs and PAs are well positioned to fill critical gaps, and newly graduated NPs will constitute a rapidly growing share of the workforce in the near term,” the authors wrote. “Health systems that invest now in onboarding, interprofessional training and team-based care models will be better prepared to capitalize on the opportunities and manage the transitions that accompany this workforce evolution.”
The authors also said policymakers should ensure regulations and payment policies “more effectively leverage this growing workforce to address geographic and specialty shortages.”
The researchers noted several limitations. The projections assume recent workforce trends continue and do not account for future policy changes, economic shifts or changes in education capacity that could affect clinician supply. They also rely on self-reported Census Bureau survey data and measure workforce size rather than clinical hours worked or specialty distribution.
The post Nurse practitioner workforce growth to far outpace physicians, physician assistants: Study appeared first on Becker’s Hospital Review | Healthcare News & Analysis.