Severe flu outbreaks across globe spur warnings for US

An influenza strain that emerged over the summer is causing unusually early and severe outbreaks in Canada, the U.K. and Japan, prompting warnings from public health experts about what could be in store for the U.S. as flu season kicks into gear, NBC News reported Nov. 12.

The strain is a version of H3N2, a type of influenza A virus. Influenza A strains are generally known to cause more severe illness, particularly in older adults and young children. Over the summer, it acquired several new mutations, meaning “the virus is quite different to the H3N2 strain included in this year’s vaccine,” Antonia Ho, PhD, an infectious diseases consultant and senior lecturer at the University of Glasgow in Scotland, said in a statement. 

The strain is behind early waves in several countries, experts told NBC. In the U.K., flu cases are already triple what they were around the same time last year and are driving up hospitalizations. Meanwhile, Japan is experiencing an “unprecedented” early flu season, with infections nearly six times what they were at this time last year. 

“These are not good signs,” Angela Rasmussen, PhD, a virologist with the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, told the news outlet. 

Experts say the developments abroad raise concern how the respiratory virus season could play out in the U.S. this year, especially amid limited visibility into virus activity and hospitalization trends. The CDC has not published an updated influenza surveillance report since the week of Sept. 20, with data tracking paused during the federal government shutdown. While the shutdown is now over, it could take time for data collection and analysis to ramp back up to normal levels, experts say.

Other factors further complicating the landscape this year are lower vaccine uptake, rising measles outbreaks and disruptions to hospital-at-home programs — a key lever to manage capacity during virus season. Flu vaccination rates are projected to drop 12% this season, with an even steeper decline expected among adults, according to estimates from CSL, a flu shot producer. 

Vaccine strains are typically selected in February; this year’s shots protect against two types of influenza A and one type of B. Even though the shot is not an exact match for the evolving H3N2 strain, experts say vaccination remains key to reducing the severity of illness and easing strain on hospitals as virus season gathers steam.

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